Here & There - 03.27.20
The travel industry might never be the same
Here & There? is a weekly-ish email from Kyle Frost about travel, the outdoors, and other stuff. If you enjoy this issue, please consider forwarding it to a friend. If you’re reading it for the first time, consider subscribing (it’s free!).
The last issue had a 65% open rate, and the top link was this video of penguins at the zoo.
Permanent damage.
When it comes to the travel industry, that’s what we’re looking at here. It’s been amazing to see so many communities in the travel and outdoor industries band together to help each other out in the past weeks, but that’s not going to be enough.
The travel industry has been living in a boom for the last five or six years. With a great economy, subsidized flights, and platforms like Instagram contributing to a general sense of wanderlust, times have been good. We’ve seen the rise of new hospitality companies like Airbnb (and a plethora of boutique competitors). There has been a massive increase in small group travel — large companies like Intrepid Travel, G Adventures, and Exodus Travel have grown significantly and many smaller companies joined the fray. The market share of local tours and activities has grown and resulted in big acquisitions over the last few years as big, established players entered the space.
But the stories I’ve been hearing in my small slice of the travel world over the last weeks have been devastating. Travel is truly a world-affecting economy. The effects trickle all the way from employees in the ‘home office’, to local economies globally, and down to the guides themselves.
The industry is going to be unrecognizable in a few months. Not only with bankruptcies and consolidations, but I think the idea of a future ‘surge' isn't likely to materialize. There’s been some talk of “just make it through the lockdowns, and things will bounce back”. But with global and regional economies hit hard, leisure (and business) travel might not return to pre-2020 levels for a long time.
Will some survive? Sure. Companies that have raised capital (smartly) or are able to go into hibernation mode (still likely laying off most of their employees) and keep their communities engaged will come out the other side. But even then, few companies — even seemingly untouchable incumbents — are truly prepared for revenues going to zero. There’s a big difference between a recession and your revenues totally evaporating overnight.
I wish I had more positive thoughts, or solutions. But I don’t. Honestly, I hope I’m wrong about most of this.
The bright side may be that it’ll be a brand new landscape for future entrepreneurs to take on once this is over. There will be an opportunity for new companies, new ideas, and new ways of approaching travel. We might see a trend towards closer-to-home travel, or international destinations may double-down on subsidized flights in an attempt to draw people back into traveling internationally. But in the meantime, it’s going to take an immense amount of creativity, smart management, and belt-tightening to weather this storm.
At the Outbound, we’re trying to do what we can to showcase and tell the stories of small businesses and creators that are affected by the crisis. Just fill out one of the forms on this page. We’re feeling the crunch as well, but we’re doing what we can.
My skills personally lie in the design/ux/web/creative strategy realm — just email me if you want to chat. www.kylefrost.com
Stay safe, stay healthy. As always, feel free to reach out with ideas, feedback, or stuff you think I should talk about via email, Instagram, or Twitter.
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Cheers,
Kyle